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The FOMC Dot Plot: What It Shows and What It Does Not

The FOMC dot plot is the figure in the Summary of Economic Projections showing each participating Federal Reserve policymaker’s assessment of the appropriate federal funds rate at the end of specified years and over the longer run. Dots are individual, conditional judgments rather than a voted committee plan. The…

Timeline

  1. 2012-01-25: The SEP began publishing participants’ individual federal funds rate assumptions in the figure now called the dot plot.
  2. 2026-09-16: The Federal Reserve released the latest available Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot reviewed for this guide.
  3. 2026-10-12: Federal Reserve SEP guides, definitions and uncertainty notes were rechecked.

The “dot plot” is Figure 2 in the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP. Each dot represents one FOMC participant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate federal funds target range, or an appropriate target level, at the end of a specified calendar year or over the longer run. Participants include Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents. The figure shows a distribution of individual views; it is not a single forecast issued or approved by the committee. [1][2][3][4]

Each policy dot is conditional on that participant’s economic outlook and preferred policy path. In the same exercise, participants project real GDP growth, unemployment, headline PCE inflation and core PCE inflation using information available at the meeting. “Appropriate monetary policy” means the path that the individual believes would best promote maximum employment and price stability under that outlook. Change the assumptions about inflation, labor markets, growth or financial conditions and the appropriate-rate judgment can change too. [1][3]

The year labels refer to year-end points, not meeting-by-meeting timing. Two participants can place the same year-end dot while imagining different paths during the year. The longer-run column is different again: it shows the rate each participant expects policy to converge toward over time under appropriate policy and without further shocks. It is neither today’s neutral rate measured with certainty nor a promise that the actual rate will arrive there on a schedule. [1][3]

The median dot is the middle submission after the values are ordered. It is useful for summarizing how the center of the distribution moved from the previous SEP, but the median is not a vote, may not be any particular participant’s complete path and does not reveal who will vote at a future meeting. Dots are not labeled by name or connected across years, so readers cannot reliably draw one policymaker’s trajectory through the columns. [1][3]

Read the spread as well as the center. A tight cluster suggests participants’ appropriate-rate judgments are similar at that horizon; a wide range shows meaningful disagreement or different assumptions. Then compare the rate distribution with the SEP’s growth, unemployment and inflation ranges and with participants’ assessments of risks. The Federal Reserve also publishes historical forecast-error information because uncertainty grows with the horizon and actual outcomes routinely differ from modal projections. [1][2][3]

A new SEP can shift even without an immediate policy action, and an FOMC decision can occur at a meeting without a new SEP. Projections are released four times a year, in March, June, September and December, while the FOMC has additional scheduled meetings. Incoming data, revisions, shocks, updated models and changes in participants can move the dots. Comparing vintages is informative only if the reader also compares the assumptions, meeting date and macroeconomic projections. [1][2][4]

Do not convert the median mechanically into a guaranteed number of quarter-point cuts or increases. Such arithmetic assumes the starting rate, move size, path, timing and median all unfold exactly as imagined. Market prices answer a different question: what traders collectively price under risk and uncertainty. Officials’ speeches answer still another: one person’s current reasoning. The statement and press conference explain the current committee decision; the SEP shows conditional individual projections beyond it. [2][3]

A disciplined reading uses four steps: identify the release date; state that each dot is an individual year-end assessment; report the median together with the range or clustering; and name the economic assumptions and uncertainty. Avoid drawing connecting lines, assigning dots to officials or calling the chart a pledge. The plot is valuable because it reveals the distribution and evolution of policymakers’ judgments. Its message is a conditional reaction to an outlook, not a calendar of rate moves guaranteed by the Federal Reserve. [1][2][3][4]

Sources

  1. Federal Reserve — Guide to the Summary of Economic Projections
  2. Federal Reserve — What Is the Summary of Economic Projections?
  3. Federal Reserve — September 16, 2026 FOMC Projections Materials, Accessible Version
  4. Federal Reserve — Timeline: Summary of Economic Projections

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